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Monday, February 9, 2009

What is a Good Coach Worth? by Dan Leo

Football - Fulham v Portsmouth Barclays Premier League

by Dan Leo for World Football Commentaries

Monday, February 9th, Portsmouth of the English Premier League has fired its manager Tony Adams. An ex-English international defender had been in charge for a little over three months while compiling an absolutely dreadful 0-7-2 record at Fratton Park.
The comparisons with his predecessor Harry Redknapp are striking.
Pompey has 24 points out of 24 matches in the current 2008-09 season with 'arry getting 22 out of his 14 (one game with an interim coach) and Tony 2 out of his 9. Thus, Redknapp averaged 1.57 PPG while Adams a mind-bogglingly incompetent - couldn't one do that by accident?- .22.

Sunderland: Ricky v. Roy
A little less of a radical departure is Sunderland. The club had 15 points out of 15 matches when Roy Keane resigned on December, 4. Ricky Sbragia, a 52-year old career assistant coach who never ran his own club, got 15 points out of the following 10 matches. Roy, an ex-Manchester United captain, averaged 1.0 PPG. Ricky 1.5, for 150% improvement.
The amusing thing here is that Keane was a decent Championship manager, taking Sunderland back up in one year and once thought of as a next great managerial talent and a possible heir to Alex Ferguson's throne while Sbragia was never thought as more than a nice chap to have around.
Finally, "Big Sam" took over Blackburn for a dismal Paul Ince on December, 20th and has earned his club 10 points out of 7 matches, losing for the first time yesterday to Aston Villa. Paul Ince had 13 points out of 17 only, so Allardyce stands at 1.42 PPG while Dunce ... eh, Ince was .77.
So, what is a good manager worth?
Over a 38 match EPL schedule, a team averaging 1.5 PPG will end up with 57 points and conceivably go to the Europa Cup.
Anyone with lower than 1 PPG will likely get relegated. And, given the Premiership TV contract, that's a difference of about $100M/season in revenues. Which begs a question?

How in the world did Ince and Adams get hired in the first place?

About the Author

Dan Leo is a freelance writer based from Miami, Florida. He has also written about international football for Soccerlens. For a link to his web site, please click here.

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